Political rumours die just as hard as political aspirations, especially when there appears to be some truth in them. For the second time since October, it emerged last week that Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen is one of the leading candidates to become the European Union’s inaugural president.
Ekstra Bladet newspaper reported that it had obtained information from the prime minister’s office and the Finance Ministry indicating Rasmussen had already worked out a plan that would allow him to hand over power to Finance Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen.
But does Rasmussen have the right stuff to become president?
On the EU front, Rasmussen, despite the eurosceptic leanings of his countrymen, has proven himself to be firmly rooted in the pro-EU camp. After being faced with the likelihood that voters would reject the original EU constitution in a referendum in 2005, he has ensured that the revised version will be a matter for the equally pro-EU parliament to decide upon. He is also an advocate of integrating the country more deeply into the EU by eliminating its opt-outs.
Rasmussen’s international track record would be an asset as well. Especially useful would be his close relations with the United States at a time when the trans-Atlantic relationship is still smarting from disagreements over intervention in Iraq, the War on Terror and not least, from disagreements about climate change.
Looking towards the UN Climate Conference in Copenhagen in 2009, one would expect that as a European president hosting the world on his home turf, Rasmussen could top his 2002 performance that helped secure the largest expansion in the history of the EU. Success in 2009 could - quite literally - save the world.
The EU president has been established in order to replace the existing system of rotating six-month presidencies among the member states. The job would involve co-ordinating EU policy and brokering agreements between the leaders of the 27 member states.
First and foremost a strong administrator known for his perfectionism, and far from possessing the charisma of a Tony Blair or the charm of an Angela Merkel, Rasmussen would be the hard-working technocrat needed to steer the heavy bureaucracy of Brussels without getting into personality conflicts.
The fact that he comes from a small country means that none of the major powers of Europe would be slighted, a fact attested to by the emergence of Luxembourg’s Jean-Claude Junker and Ireland’s Bertie Ahern as other short-list candidates. That Rasmussen speaks French adds to his palatability.
A number of hurdles, however, stand in the way of a Rasmussen presidency.
First, are his close ties to the Bush administration. While giving him credibility as an international insider, it will just as likely be a liability. Many will remember that he sided with America, and helped divide Europe, by involving Denmark in the intervention in Iraq. This is something that also dogs former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, who is also on the short-list.
Questions also remain over whether Rasmussen’s government knew the CIA was using Danish airspace to illegally transport terror suspects. The close US relationship could leave some wondering whether he has a greater orientation towards trans-Atlantic relations than pan-European.
And while he has expressed his personal hope that Denmark’s four EU opt-outs will be eliminated, they still remain. The country’s rejection of the euro is a particularly glaring mar that indelibly labels Denmark as being on the fringes of EU co-operation.
Furthermore, while Rasmussen’s political reliance on the nationalist Danish People’s Party for the past seven years may have been a political survival tactic at home, the alliance could count against him, while the stigma of the Mohammed cartoon crisis will also be difficult to hide.
Rasmussen has already tried to make the step up from Copenhagen to Brussels. In 2004, he put his name in to become chairman of the European Commission. The favourite at that time was Junker, who had to withdraw when a general election was called at home.
With neither man apparently willing to give up their aspirations to higher office, Europe’s next big man could wind up coming from one of its smallest states.
