The Copenhagen Scientific Climate Congress finds many worst case scenarios have become a reality

New studies presented at the Scientific Climate Congress in Copenhagen today showed the worrying economic cost of climate change.

A study showed that while it will cost up to 128 billion yen (7.72 billion kroner) to secure Japanese harbours against more frequent storms, failure to do so could result in the loss of 1.5 to 3.4 percent of Japan's GDP by 2085 (Japanese GDP in 2007 was 25 trillion kroner). This is due to an increased number of days harbours will be forced to close.

‘Port planners should factor this in when designing port capacities,’ said Miguel Esteban, of the United Nations University Institute of Advanced Studies. ‘Failure to do so could lead to bottlenecks in the shipments of products and constrain Japanese economic growth.’

Another study released today showed productivity among outdoor labourers in New Delhi, India, had declined by 10 percent since 1980 due to climate change. If the temperature were to rise a further 2 degrees, productivity could be reduced by another 20 percent.

‘Increasing excessive heat exposure affects the daily life, work and health of poor people in tropical countries,’ said Tord Kjellström, of the National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health at Australian National University.

The full conclusions of the three-day congress, attended by more than 2,500 international experts, will be published in June. The preliminary report was presented to Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen today. The full conclusions will be handed to policy makers at the UN climate conference in Copenhagen later this year.

The science team concluded that recent data and observations show that the worst case scenarios of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were being already realised. ‘There is a significant risk that many of the trends will accelerate,’ said a statement from the group today, highlighting climate effects on sea-level, global temperature, ocean acidification and ice-sheet dynamics.

Leading experts warned earlier this week that the latest IPCC report, from 2007, which warned of possible sea-level rise of between 18 and 59cm by 2100, had underestimated the effect of climate change and that levels could rise to more than one metre by the end of the century.

The group also implored policy makers to take effective short-term action with a long-term strategy in mind.

‘Weaker targets for 2020 increase the risk of crossing tipping points and make the task of meeting 2050 targets more difficult,’ said the preliminary report, released today.